Joseph Lamar Simmons Explains Risk Scoring in Intelligence Work


Understanding risk is one of the most important parts of intelligence work. Every decision, mission, or analysis depends on knowing how serious a threat is and what action should follow. Intelligence expert Joseph Lamar Simmons breaks down how risk scoring works in a clear and practical way that anyone can understand. This listicle explores the essential steps and principles behind accurate risk scoring.

1. Identifying the Source of the Information

Risk scoring begins with knowing where the information comes from. Joseph Lamar Simmons explains that not all sources are equal.

  • Some sources are highly reliable.

  • Some are unverified.

  • Others may be biased or intentionally misleading.

By rating the source first, analysts build a strong foundation for any risk score.

2. Looking at the Credibility of the Information

Even a trusted source can sometimes relay incorrect details. This is why Simmons stresses that analysts must judge the information itself, not just the person or system providing it.
 He recommends checking:

  • Consistency

  • Accuracy

  • Supporting evidence

  • The level of detail

Credibility scoring helps prevent decisions based on weak or incomplete data.

3. Measuring the Potential Impact

Impact is the heart of risk scoring. Joseph Lamar Simmons explains that analysts must consider what could happen if the threat becomes real.

Questions intelligence officers ask include:

  • Does this affect national security?

  • Could it cause harm to people or systems?

  • How widespread would the damage be?

A threat with a high potential impact will always receive a higher risk score.

4. Evaluating the Likelihood of the Threat

A threat can have a major impact but still be unlikely. So Joseph Lamar Simmons  highlights the need to look at the probability of the event happening.

This includes reviewing:

  • Past patterns

  • Current conditions

  • Behavioral indicators

  • Technology or resources involved

Likelihood scoring helps analysts avoid overreacting or underreacting.

5. Factoring in Time Sensitivity

Some threats require immediate response, while others may develop slowly. According to Simmons, time plays a crucial role in setting risk levels.

 He explains that analysts ask:

  • Is action needed right now?

  • Can this risk grow rapidly?

  • Is there enough time to gather more information?

Shorter timelines usually push the risk score higher.

6. Observing Behavior and Intent

A threat becomes more serious when there is clear intent behind it. Joseph Lamar Simmons notes that understanding human behavior is a key part of intelligence work.

Experts look for signs such as:

  • Sudden changes in routine

  • Communication patterns

  • Access to tools or sensitive areas

  • Statements or actions that show planning

Intent strengthens the overall risk score and signals the need for faster response. 

7. Combining Scores Into a Final Rating

After reviewing all factors, analysts combine their findings into one final risk score. Simmons says this summary should be simple and easy to understand, even for people outside intelligence fields.

Common scoring levels include:

  • Low

  • Moderate

  • High

  • Critical

This final rating helps teams decide what steps to take next.

8. Using Risk Scores to Guide Real Decisions

Risk scoring is only valuable if it leads to action. Simmons explains that intelligence teams use these scores to decide:

  • Which threats need urgent attention

  • Where to allocate resources

  • When to inform leadership

  • Whether more is required

A clear score ensures quick, confident, and effective decision-making.

Conclusion

Risk scoring helps intelligence officers stay organized, avoid mistakes, and understand threats with clarity. Joseph Lamar Simmons shows that the process is not just technical—it is practical and essential for smart, informed decisions. By breaking down each step, he makes intelligence work easier to understand and highlights the value of accurate, thoughtful analysis.

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